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Iran could make an atom bomb, according to UN report's ‘secret annexe’
United Nations nuclear experts believe that Iran has sufficient information to be able to design and produce a workable atom bomb, according to newly published excerpts of a confidential official analysis.
The prognosis, which matches British and French estimates of Iran’s weaponisation work, is contained in an unpublished annexe to this year’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report on Iran.
The so-called secret annexe, described by insiders as a running assessment of intelligence on Iran’s nuclear programme, became a political hot potato when France and Israel accused the IAEA of suppressing its contents on publication of the official report last month. Possible Military Dimensions of Iran’s Nuclear Program, excerpts of which were posted on the internet this weekend, stresses that its conclusion are tentative. Last month Mohamed ElBaradei, the Director-General of the IAEA, said that the agency had “no concrete proof” of a military dimension to Iran’s programme.
The report, however, presents evidence that Iran has done extensive research and testing on how to fashion the components of a nuclear payload to be delivered by the Shahab-3, a medium-range missile capable of hitting Israel and parts of southern Europe. American intelligence agencies concluded in a 2007 report that Iran had suspended its research into making a nuclear warhead in 2003 — an assessment that both Britain and France rejected.
“We are not convinced they stopped then,” a European official told The Times. “We believe they know what they need to know to make a bomb. The question is whether they take the political decision to do so.”
Warhead design, if Iran is undertaking it, represents only part of the complex process of making nuclear arms. Experts say that Iran has already mastered the hardest part, enriching uranium to be used as nuclear fuel, for civilian and military purposes alike. Military-use fuel requires a much higher grade of uranium enrichment but, theoretically, Iran could simply re-enrich its existing uranium until it reaches weapons grade — if it were able to do so away from the eyes of international inspectors.
Today Mr ElBaradei secured access to the second of Tehran’s uranium enrichment sites after its dramatic public unveiling by President Barack Obama at the Pittsburgh G20 summit last month.
Washington believes that the facility, hidden inside a mountain near Qom, may be just one of a series of clandestine sites — a charge that Tehran vehemently denies.
Its disclosure, however, was credited with forcing Iran’s hand at landmark talks in Geneva last week, at which Tehran agreed to open the plant, enter further negotiations and send most of its known enriched uranium stockpiles abroad for reprocessing, removing them from potential redirection to a weapons programme.
Mr ElBaradei today declared a “shifting of gears” in Iran’s confrontation, announcing an agreement for inspectors to visit the Qom site on October 25. That, however, is some days later than the two week deadline that Mr Obama had laid down. Iran is due to return to talks with six leading world powers before the end of the month but after inspectors gain admittance to the site.
At a press conference in Tehran Mr ElBaradei reiterated that the IAEA “has no concrete proof of an ongoing weapons programme in Iran”. But it did harbour “concerns about Iran's future intentions”.
“It is important for us to send our inspectors to do a comprehensive verification of that facility, to assure ourselves that it is a facility that is built for peaceful purposes,” Mr ElBaradei said. “I trust that Iran will be as transparent with our inspectors team as possible.”
The IAEA says that there are still outstanding issues that Iran needs to clarify, including its alleged studies of high explosives and a missile delivery system for a nuclear warhead, two of the concerns outlined in the confidential report.
“As I have said many times and I continue to say today, the agency has no complete proof that there is an ongoing weapons programme in Iran,” Mr ElBaradei said. “There are allegations that Iran has conducted weaponisation studies. However, these allegations we are still looking into and we are looking to Iran to help us clarify.”
Suspicion that Iran’s newly-revealed nuclear site was meant for military purposes has been heightened by its location, partly inside a mountain and within a military base. Iran has said that it built the facility to protect it from a potential aerial bombing and to ensure continuity of its nuclear activities in case of an attack.
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